A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."